A Last-Minute Holiday Shopping Prediction

Overall holiday retail spending in the U.S. increased 4.8% year over year, according to preliminary insights released Dec. 23 by credit-card giant Visa. That’s across all forms of payment, including cash and check, and is not adjusted for inflation, Visa noted in the first Retail Spend Monitor from its Visa Consulting & Analytics unit.

“This holiday shopping season, we’re seeing increasing consumer confidence as people sought out in-store experiences – and went online – to purchase gifts and celebrate the holidays with friends and family,” said Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa. “This spending growth demonstrates the adaptability of both consumers and retailers and the overall strength of the economy.”

Some other highlights from the study:

• Consumers headed back to stores: Out of total holiday retail spend in the U.S., 77% of total payment volume was in store versus 23% online, showing the in-store experience remains important for the consumer. Total retail spend in stores grew at a rate of 4.1% (versus 1.6% last year).
• Online retail shopping continues to grow: Online retail shopping increased by 7.1% (versus 10.3% last year), showing consumers continue to rely on its convenience and ease during the holiday season.
• Consistent electronics sales growth: The electronics sector growth rate increased to 4.2% versus 2.8% last year.
• Clothing and accessories are in season: This holiday season saw a 5.0% rise in sales (versus 2.4% last year) for clothing and accessories.
• Making homes cozier for the holidays: Building materials sales increased by 4.7% (versus a negative 3.9% last year), indicating consumers turned their attention to their homes this year.
• A global spending season: Across the globe, holiday shoppers demonstrated positive activity. Brazil saw a 12.2% year over year increase, while South Africa experienced a 7% growth in spending. Both regions enjoyed double-digit growth across all five merchant categories. The U.K. joined the trend with a 2.3% rise, and Australia saw a 7.4% increase in overall spend.
• Fraudsters are doubling down: Earlier this month, Visa reported that it blocked nearly double the amount of suspected fraud in 2024 versus 2023 during Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend.

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