Bain: US Holiday Sales Set to Top $1 Trillion for First Time

U.S. retail sales for November and December are projected to grow 4.5% year over year and surpass $1 trillion for the first time, according to a Bain & Company holiday forecast. That rate of growth is up from the 3.5% increase recorded for the 2025 season.

Inflation is expected to account for more than half of the nominal sales increase. Online sales are projected to rise 9% year over year, outpacing in-store sales growth of 2.5%, based on Bain’s survey of more than 1,100 consumers.

The Independent framed the forecast against a difficult year for retailers, citing Census Bureau data showing retail sales fell month-over-month in February, April and July, with July’s 0.6% drop the steepest since May 2025 — a pullback the outlet linked to post-World Cup and Amazon Prime Day spending fatigue. The media outlet further noted that gas prices hit a four-year high in March amid the Trump administration’s conflict with Iran, contributing to inflation reaching 4.2% in May, a three-year high.

Bain identified additional headwinds weighing on shoppers’ spending power, including elevated prices from tariffs, rising credit card delinquency and a soft labor market.

“While US retailers have reason to rejoice this holiday season as the industry reaches the trillion-dollar milestone for the first time, there are underlying factors that will temper bottom lines,” Aaron Cheris, Bain’s global head of retail, said in comments in the report.

According to the consulting firm’s research, nearly a quarter of consumers (24%) said they plan to begin holiday shopping using AI platforms such as ChatGPT, Google Gemini and Claude, up from 17% last year.

The Bain report didn’t provide a jewelry-specific figure — its closest categorization groups jewelry into “clothing and accessories,” which it projects will be among the stronger-growth segments (above 5%, alongside e-commerce).