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US Consumer Confidence Took Big Leap in June

But worries about possible recession persist

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Three major indexes from The Conference Board show consumers continue to have a positive outlook as 2023 hits its halfway point. Specifically:

  • The Consumer Confidence Index increased in June to 109.7 (1985=100), up from 102.5 in May.
  • The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — rose to 155.3 (1985=100) from 148.9 last month.
  • The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — rose to 79.3 (1985=100) from 71.5 in May.

Expectations have remained below 80—the level associated with a recession within the next year—every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022. However, June’s reading was just a shade below 80 and up sharply from last month’s print.

“Consumer confidence improved in June to its highest level since January 2022, reflecting improved current conditions and a pop in expectations,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit member-driven think tank founded in 1916. “Greater confidence was most evident among consumers under age 35, and consumers earning incomes over $35,000. Nonetheless, the expectations gauge continued to signal consumers anticipating a recession at some point over the next six to 12 months.”

Click here for more from the board’s latest indices.

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