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Holiday Retail Sales Seen Jumping 4.2%: NRF

Dick’s Sporting Goods and its Foot Locker unit are among the retailers reining in their holiday hiring this year. Photo: M. Suhail/iStock by Getty Images

A stocking full of economic headwinds notwithstanding, U.S. retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025, the National Retail Federation said in its just-released annual holiday forecast. That translates to total spending of $1.013 trillion, which is up from last year’s rise of 3.1% for to hit $972 billion.

“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”

Adds NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews: “We head into the holiday season with strong spending momentum, as consumers remain the bright spot in the economy. At the same time, inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.”

NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with last year’s estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs. Like last year, retailers remain cautious amid higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt, resulting in a measured approach to seasonal hiring.

Among those retailers looking to hire fewer seasonal workers this year are Dick’s Sporting Goods (8400 such employees) and its sister unit Foot Locker (2900). Last year, those totals were 14,000 and 4750, respectively.

NRF’s holiday forecast is based on economic modeling using various key economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases. NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.

Click on the links below for other holiday season 2026 spending forecasts published recently by Shop!

https://shopassociation.org/more-holiday-season-2026-sales-forecasts/

https://shopassociation.org/busiest-holiday-shopping-days-in-the-u-s-for-2026/

https://shopassociation.org/100-days-until-christmas-more-holiday-forecasts/

Shop! Association

The Shop! Association is a global trade association dedicated to advancing the retail environment and experience industry. Its purpose is to empower members to innovate at retail by connecting them with education, insights, and events that support collaboration and forward-thinking solutions. From ideation through implementation, Shop! engages its diverse membership to co-create innovations that help shape the future of retail worldwide. Central to its mission is fostering an inclusive culture that embraces diverse voices and upholds high standards of ethics and transparency. Since 1956, Shop! has empowered its members to innovate at retail through education, insights and events. Learn more by visiting shopassociation.org. Interested in joining the Shop! Association? Reach out to Dina Meindl, Membership Services, for more information today! dina@shopassociation.org.