100 Days Until Christmas: More Holiday Forecasts

As we head into the double-digit portion of the countdown to Dec. 25, here are some of the latest consumer surveys and other signs of the season:

* Holiday retail sales are projected to total between $1.70 trillion and $1.71 trillion from November 2026 through January 2027 period, representing an increase of 4.0% to 4.8% over the same period in 2025, Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast concludes.

“Consumers continue to place importance on making the holidays special for their friends and families, while also making deliberate choices about how they spend,” said Natalie Martini, Vice Chair and U.S. Retail and Consumer Products Leader at Deloitte, which provides audit, consulting, tax and advisory services to businesses. “As they look to get more out of their dollars, we continue to see value-seeking behaviors across income levels, including switching among brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending.”

* A survey by Invoice Home finds that 1 in 6 (16%) of U.S. shoppers say they will sacrifice everyday essentials to buy gifts this holiday season. That result is from a survey of 2000 U.S. consumers undertaken by Censuswide for the invoice software template provider.

“This is the third year we’ve done this survey, and it continues to divulge a strong desire from consumers to spend during the season, even if it means making big financial sacrifices to do so,” says Petr Marek, Co-Founder and CEO of Invoice Home. “For retail businesses, this means identifying areas of your business that meets customer preferences ahead of the busiest shopping season. This could be offering more diverse payment options, being extra transparent in your return policies, and insisting on additional training for employees to ensure a smooth in-store experience.”

* The coming holiday season will likely be defined by cautious spending, heightened price sensitivity, more shopping in the weeks leading up to Black Friday and growing adoption of AI throughout the shopping journey, a survey by agentic messaging platform Cordial concludes. “With the holiday season no longer defined by merely Black Friday and Cyber Monday, consumers will navigate a longer and more complex shopping journey where value, personalization and AI Assistants all play a role,” said Rob Garf, Cordial’s Head of Strategy. “Winning this holiday season requires brands to be discoverable by personal shopping agents and deliver relevance and trust to optimize customer profitability.”