Trump @ 100 Days = Consumer/Worker Uncertainty

Two surveys, released on Day 100 of President Trump’s second term (April 29), reflect an America populace wrestling  with major uncertainties, many of them traceable to the trade war he’s started with much of the world.  Here are highlights from both surveys:

The two-tiered Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell by 7.9 points in April to 86.0 (1985=100). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased 0.9 points to 133.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—dropped 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was April 21.

April marked the fifth month in a row that consumer confidence declined, hitting levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic, said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future,” Guichard said.

And…

Changes in U.S. trade policy have contributed to a growing sentiment of unease and insecurity among frontline workers, a new survey of 5000-plus such workers by HR consultant UKG found. (Such workers are typically engaged in shift work or are non-salaried employees, who typically must be present in a specific place at an assigned time to do their job — roles which are often sensitive to market fluctuations and price increases.)

Frontline workers said the 90-day pause Trump granted for many of his planned tariffs has increased uncertainty about the future (75%). Many prefer the old tariff structure (73%), as U.S. frontline workers feel nervous (65%), stressed (56%), and angry (56%) about the potential job impact. Additionally, two-thirds of employees believe tariffs will create scheduling unpredictability (64%) and limit job prospects (66%).

Click here for more from the Conference Board survey and here for more from the UKG study.