US Holiday Retail Sales Will Best Last Year’s: Bain

One of the first predictions on the 2026 holiday shopping season is out, and it may sound familiar: consulting firm Bain & Co. predicts such sales are poised to set a record this year and top $1 trillion for the first time.

However, according to the National Retail Federation, which leverages credit- and debit-card data to calculate its figures, retail sales grew already topped that mark last year. Bain, by contrast, puts last year’s total retail sales at $972 billion, based on its analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

In any event, for the coming season, Bain forecasts 4.5% growth, slightly above the last few years. “We expect in-store sales to grow by 2.5%, in line with the last two years, whereas we expect nonstore sales to grow by 9%, returning to higher growth,” the report’s five co-authors conclude.

In addition, nearly 70% of the holiday season total will come from in-store sales, but e-commerce continues to gain share, Bain notes.

Some other major predictions from the study:

• While most goods will post nominal sales growth this holiday season, inflation is expected to count for much of the increase. Sales in some retail categories will remain flat, including furniture and home furnishings, electronics and appliances, and food and beverage. General merchandise, clothing and accessories, and e-commerce are expected to see both price and unit growth.
• Underlying the headwinds faced by retailers are cautious consumers whose spending power is being weighed down by gasoline prices that remain stubbornly high, as well as the impact of tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, labor market participation at a five-year low (despite a stable national unemployment rate of 4.1%), and lower personal savings rates twinned with increasing credit card delinquency above the 10-year average.
• Despite these pressures, several factors are expected by Bain to help support nominal sales growth, including higher tax refunds that are up $43 billion from last year, higher stock prices with a 23% increase of the S&P 500 index YoY buoying the outlook of upper-income households, and also plans by some retailers to pass on tariff refunds to shoppers in the form of cuts in prices.

“The key for retailers is to make the most of the crucial holiday season by striking the right balance when it comes to price and promotions and making the most of new AI capabilities to enhance the customer experience and get ahead of competitors,” said Aaron Cheris, partner at Bain & Company and global head of the firm’s Retail practice.

Click here for more from the study.