Biz Economists See Tariffs Sinking GDP

Among those being taken on a metaphorical rollercoaster ride by the Trump administration’s frenzied on-again/off again tariff directives are economists. Want proof?  How about this: the initial April 2025 National Association of Business Economists Outlook gathered a consensus macroeconomic forecast from 41 professional forecasters that was conducted March 18-25, 2025 – which is pretty up-to-date data, given the analysis it undergoes.

But it’s not fresh enough, given the frenzied pace of change such duties are being put through by Trump. So, “to capture rapidly changing economic conditions, a flash survey was conducted April 7-9, 2025, and presents the consensus 2025-2026 macroeconomic forecast of 32 professional forecasters out of the 41 initially surveyed,” the group said in a news release.

Here’s what the group is seeing (items of special note were bolded by Shop!):  “NABE panelists lowered their forecasts for economic growth for 2025 and 2026 following the April 2 tariff announcement,” said NABE President Emily Kolinski Morris, Chief Economist at Ford Motor Co. “The Flash Survey calls for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to increase by 1.3% this year, down from 1.9% in the initial April survey. Similarly, the outlook for 2026 economic growth is 1.4%, down from 1.9%.

“In addition, half of the participants place the probability of recession in 2025 between 25% and 49%, while 37% place the odds at 50% or higher. This compares with 8% who placed the odds of recession in 2025 at 50% or higher just prior to the April 2nd tariff announcement.”

“Inflation forecasts for this year were lifted higher, while projections for next year were little changed in the Flash Survey,” added NABE Outlook Survey Chair Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist, Nationwide. “Survey respondents now forecast the consumer price index will accelerate to a 3.4% annual rate by the end of 2025, up from the estimated 3.0% annual pace in the initial April survey.

“Similarly, the estimate for the personal consumption expenditure price index was boosted to an annual 3.5% by year-end, up from 2.7% in the initial survey. Panelists did not alter the forecast path for the Federal funds rate in 2025, continuing to call for a 25-basis-point rate cut in Q3 2025 and another 25-bps rate reduction in Q4 2025.”

Click here for more from the survey.