Choppy Waters Ahead for US-Bound Merch

Retailers and others following the ups and downs of import cargo shipments to the U.S. might want to brace themselves for a bout of seasickness. The reason: even though such imports at the nation’s major container ports are expected to rebound this month after a double-digit drop in late spring, it is forecast to fall again after previously paused tariffs take effect.

Those are the main conclusions of the latest Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect, and the latest extension to Aug. 1 is greatly appreciated. Nonetheless, uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs.”

The extension Gold referred to is President Trump’s signing of an executive order earlier this week delaying “reciprocal” tariffs until Aug. 1, while also announcing tariffs of up to 40% on more than a dozen countries. The president has indicated he will send out additional letters to other countries. There are also questions about what happens with tariffs on China tariffs in August even though a deal was recently signed.

Gold also emphasized that tariffs are paid by U.S. companies, not foreign countries or businesses, and says such fees ultimately drive up prices for American families while impacting the availability of products. “It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for U.S. retailers,” he said.

Similar sentiments were expressed by Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett: “A flurry of tariff-related announcements from the Trump administration has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty. The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable. Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.”

Click here for more from the NRF/Hackett report.