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Five Retail Predictions for 2026 from the NRF

Part II of the trade group’s outlook for the industry.

Published

10 months ago

January 9, 2026

One widely watched retail executive in 2026, the NRF predicts, will be Michael Fiddelke, who was promoted from within to take Target’s reins as CEO on Feb. 1. (Shown is the retailer’s flagship store/headquarters in Minneapolis.) Photo: JHVEPhoto/iStock by Getty Images

Shop! summarized the National Retail Federation’s top five trends for 2026 in an Jan. 8 post; today we complete that outlook by outlining the trade group’s top five predictions for the year. They are:

Gen Z and Gen Alpha’s devotion to Tik Tok is plateauing; look for alternative social platforms such as Meta’s Reels and YouTube Shorts to gain ground with younger generations.
The hype cycle is over: Retailers will embrace all things AI and rely on it as a transformative tool in their tech portfolio.
ChatGPT and similar generative AI tools will rebalance shopping on both sides of the register, with caveats for both shoppers and retailers.
Marketing analytics, next-generation technology and social strategies will be the three markers of success for retail CMOs in 2026.
Hold on to that retail CEO scorecard you created in 2025; the churn is likely to continue in 2026.

Click here for the full blog by Susan Reda, the NRF’s VP, Education Strategy, in which she details five trends and five predictions for retail in the coming year.