Holiday Barometers: 3 Surveys

’Tis the season for surveys on consumers’ plans for the upcoming holiday shopping season; below are links to three such studies, accompanied by a key takeaway from each:

U.S. holiday shopping season to cross $250 billion online, Adobe survey finds. “Generative AI-powered chat services and browsers are changing how consumers act online, becoming a helpful assistant for compiling research before making a purchase. Adobe observed the first material surge in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link) during the 2024 season, with traffic increasing 1,300% Year-over-Year. For the 2025 season, Adobe expects AI traffic to rise by 520% YoY, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.

The “Holiday Shopping Intentions Survey” for 2025 by ICSC finds resilient consumers will seek value and experiences. “Despite economic concerns, our survey shows that consumers are committed to their holiday traditions and plan to shop,” said ICSC President and CEO, Tom McGee. “Our forecast reflects that resilience, but our data also signals a selective shopper, putting pressure on retailers to connect with shoppers in new ways and offer memorable shopping experiences that entice them to spend.”

A study focused on sales over the Black Friday–Cyber Monday (BFCM) period by Power Digital reveals discounting is no longer the sole lever driving consumer behavior. “The real Black Friday-Cyber Monday metric isn’t how deep your discounts go…it’s how much trust you build,” said Dani Powell, VP Client Experience at Power Digital. “Our data makes it clear: when trust erodes, so does customer lifetime value. Shoppers want to feel like they’re getting real value, not gimmicks, and they remember when brands fall short. The brands that treat BFCM as more than a weekend sales event and see it as a chance to strengthen their relationships with customers are the ones that win.”