Retail Sales Rebounded in July

It’s a classic good news/bad news scenario for stores. On the plus side, retail spending in the U.S. bounced back in July as consumers sought out summer sales promotions before more tariffs go into effect, the just-released CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor found.

But looking ahead, the latest NRF Global Port Tracker (issued three days prior to the retail monitor) projected that tariffs will cause import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports to end this year 5.6% below 2024’s volume.

First, here’s NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay’s take on the July CNBC/NRF sales figures: “Month-over-month gains were sizeable against a weaker-than-normal June. We may be seeing growing inflationary impacts from tariffs since recent data shows price increases in commodity goods, particularly non-durables. Even with weaker job growth than many expected, consumers still have the ability to spend on household priorities as wages are growing above the rate of inflation.”

The July figures, powered by Affinity Solutions, showed total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 1.45% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 5.89%.

But in coming months, tariffs will continue to put pressure on international trade, according to the port tracker report from the NRF and Hackett Associates.

“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” said NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.”

The forecast comes as tariffs on dozens of countries around the world that had been announced, postponed and then finally enacted after months of negotiations and deals began to take effect this week.

“The hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. “Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect. This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.”

Click here for more from the retail monitor and here for more from the import tracker.