Steady Sales Growth Seen for 2024 Holidays

In one of the most widely watched barometers of prospects for the coming winter holiday shopping season, the National Retail Federation forecasts that such spending is expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. That equates to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in total holiday spending in November and December, compared with $955.6 billion during the same timeframe last year.

“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”

A primary contributor of overall retail sales growth is expected from online shopping. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 8% and 9% to a total of between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion. This figure is up from $273.3 billion last year. By comparison, last year non-store sales rose 10.7% over 2022.

One differentiating characteristic from last year’s holiday shopping season is that the shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will be six days shorter, totaling 26 days. Additional contributing factors this year could include the economic impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton; even though the 2024 U.S. presidential election will take place during the winter holiday season, it is nearly impossible to measure its impact on current or future spending.

NRF’s holiday forecast is based on economic modeling using various key economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases.

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