NRF Upbeat About Retail Sales for Coming Year

U.S. retail sales in 2026 will hit $6.6 trillion, a 4.4% increase over last year, the National Retail Federation predicts. That number is based on a newly enhanced forecasting approach the trade group developed in partnership with Oxford Economics.

“Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We expect that consumer resilience to continue into 2026, with household spending once again serving as a pillar of economic support.”

The 2026 sales forecast growth compares with 3.6% average annual sales growth over the last 10 years, excluding the pandemic period from 2020 to 2022, when growth was atypical.

“Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the ripple effects across global markets are adding more uncertainty to the economic landscape,” said NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews. “While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead.”

Mathews added that the spending outlook is still bifurcated between higher- and lower-income consumers, with higher-income households driving the majority of growth in spending across a range of retail categories.

Some other trends of note:

• Consumer activity is expected to receive a modest boost in the first half of the year from larger refunds associated with tax cuts enacted under the Working Families Tax Cut Act.
• Inflation is projected to remain elevated through midyear before easing by the third quarter, offering some relief to households as the year progresses.
• Labor market conditions are expected to soften, with muted non‑farm employment growth throughout much of the year. Even so, the unemployment rate is projected to remain below 4.5%.

The NRF noted that its forecast is presented in nominal terms, which means much of the projected sales growth is anticipated to reflect “real gains rather than inflation-driven increases.”

Click here for more from the NRF report.