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Summer Surge Forecast for US Imports

Cargo uptick for retailers and other sectors expected during pause in tariff hikes

Published

1 year ago

June 10, 2025

Container ships at the Port of Los Angeles, one of many U.S. docks expected to be busier than usual this summer. Photo: hapabapa/IStock by Getty Images

It looks to be a busier-than usual summer on the High Seas and at America’s ports, with cargo imports surging as retailers take advantage of a 90-day reduction in tariffs recently imposed on China. That’s the conclusion of the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,” said NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.21 million 20-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in April, the latest month for which final data is available and before the impact of the April tariffs was felt. That was up 2.9% from March and up 9.6% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for May — when the April tariffs began to have an impact — but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.91 million TEU, down 13.4% from April and down 8.1% year over year. That would be the first year-over-year decline since September 2023 and the lowest volume since 1.87 million TEU in December 2023.

“Our projections show that May saw a significant reduction in imports as shippers responded to the higher tariff environment,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “However, tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses. The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season. If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.”

Click here for more from the latest Global Port Tracker.