Vacancy Rates, Pipeline May Buoy Retail

Low vacancy rates and a sluggish development pipeline could well spell good news for the retail sector in today’s turbulent times. That’s the conclusion of a new special report on U.S. trade policy as its relates to the commercial real estate market by Marcus & Millichap.

When it comes to retail, the report notes that persistent inflation and cautious consumer spending often favor budget-friendly and grocery-anchored retailers, while discretionary segments — including restaurants and fashion — may well see softer sales. “Yet the sector benefits from an unusually low amount of development in the pipeline, and a historically tight vacancy rate of 4.5 percent entering 2025 provides a cushion against any potential sharp drops in leasing,” the report notes. “Retailers less dependent on imports may also avoid the worst margin pressures from elevated tariff costs.”

Looking at the commercial real estate sector as a whole, the report notes that  preliminary first-quarter 2025 data shows apartment and office vacancies each declined by around 10 basis points, retail vacancy stayed stable and industrial availability rose slightly.  All that means that “the market is entering this uncertain period with sound footing.” On the other hand, consumer sentiment has dipped by nearly a third since December, which may lead to less household formation and less spending at retailers.

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