Holiday Barometers, Part II

With roughly two months left before the year-end holidays are in full swing, surveys on consumers’ plans for the coming shopping season are arriving in a torrent. Below are links to four of the most recent such studies, accompanied by a key takeaway from each:

National Retail Federation (NRF): Consumers are expected to spend the second-highest amount since the organization started tracking such outlays 23 years ago. Specifically, this year’s spending is projected to be $890.49 per person, down slightly from last year’s record  of $901.99. “Time and again, Americans prioritize spending on loved ones for holidays despite economic uncertainty,” said NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen. “With more consumers planning to seek out sale events this year, retailers are prepared to deliver on deals and value to ensure consumers have everything they need to make the holiday special.”

Deloitte: Holiday spending is expected to decline amid economic uncertainty. “To stretch their budgets, many surveyed consumers plan to exhibit value-seeking behavior by searching for deals (89%), trading down on brands and retailers (77%), reusing or recycling items (73%), and making DIY gifts (49%).”

Rakuten: Holiday shoppers split on spending as retailers double down on incentives. A survey performed for the cash-back shopping platform by Harris Poll uncovered a sharply divided outlook for holiday shopping this year, with just over one-fourth of shoppers (28%) planning to spend less, while a similar share (26%) expect to spend more. “This divide is even more pronounced among households with children, which are gearing up to spend at nearly twice the rate of child-free households (38% vs. 19%), despite citing increased pressures on household finances from inflation and tariffs,” the report states. “This trend signals that shoppers with children feel more pressure to increase spending so they can still give their families an abundant holiday.”

Blackhawk: Gift cards sales are expected to surge this holiday season. The provider of branded payment solutions’ annual holiday forecast, which surveyed over 2100 U.S. consumers, showed that “while 13% are purchasing gifts for fewer people due to financial constraints, overall holiday gift spending continues to rise and gift cards will represent 39% of total holiday budgets—a 12% increase over last year.”

Editor’s note: This is the second such roundup of predictions Shop! has run about the 2025 holiday season; click here for the first compilation.